telega.R

library(tidyverse)
library(lubridate)
library(ggtext)
library(glue)


URL <- "https://api.ooni.org/api/v1/aggregation?probe_cc=RU&since=2026-02-26&until=2026-04-03&time_grain=day&axis_x=measurement_start_day&test_name=telegram&format=CSV"

date_split <- ymd("2026-03-14")

status_levels <- c(
  ok_count        = "OK (Доступен)",
  anomaly_count   = "Anomaly (Аномалии)"
  # , confirmed_count = "Confirmed (Подтверждено)"
)

status_colors <- c(
  "OK (Доступен)"            = "#4C78A8",
  "Anomaly (Аномалии)"     = "#D55E00",
  "Confirmed (Подтверждено)" = "#CC79A7"
)

# Загрузка данных
ooni_data <- read_csv(URL, show_col_types = FALSE) %>%
  mutate(measurement_start_day = ymd(measurement_start_day)) %>%
  arrange(measurement_start_day)

ooni_data <- ooni_data %>%
  mutate(
    total_tests = ok_count + anomaly_count + confirmed_count,
    anomaly_share = anomaly_count / total_tests
  )

interval_stats <- ooni_data %>%
  mutate(
    period = case_when(
      measurement_start_day < ymd("2026-03-14") ~ "До 14 марта",
      measurement_start_day <= ymd("2026-03-19") ~ "14–19 марта",
      TRUE ~ "20 мар–02 апр"
    )
  ) %>%
  mutate(period = factor(period, 
                         levels = c("До 14 марта",
                                    "14–19 марта",
                                    "20 мар–02 апр"))) %>%
  group_by(period) %>%
  summarise(
    mean_share = round(mean(anomaly_share, na.rm = TRUE), 2),
    .groups = "drop"
  ) %>%
  mutate(
    mean_share_pct = scales::percent(mean_share, accuracy = 1)
  )

interval_stats

vals <- interval_stats$mean_share_pct

subtitle_text <- glue::glue("
Доля <span style='color:#D55E00'><b>аномалий</b></span> в тестах проверки <span style='color:#4C78A8'><b>доступности</b></span> выросла<br>с ~{vals[1]} 
до ~{vals[2]} в середине марта и до <b>~{vals[3]}</b> после <b>20 марта</b>.<br>
  Рост числа аномалий указываeт на потенциальную блокировку."
)

caption <- "
Источник данных: OONI Explorer  | 26.02 – 02.04.2026\n
Визуализация: Юрий Тукачев, апрель 2026 @weekly_charts"

ooni_long <- ooni_data %>%
  pivot_longer(
    cols = all_of(names(status_levels)),
    names_to = "status",
    values_to = "count"
  ) %>%
  mutate(
    status = recode(status, !!!status_levels),
    status = factor(status, levels = unname(status_levels))
  ) %>%
  filter(count > 0)

present_statuses <- levels(droplevels(ooni_long$status))

# Даты
dates <- as.Date(range(ooni_data$measurement_start_day))
date_split <- as.Date(ymd("2026-03-14"))
breaks_seq <- seq(dates[1], dates[2], by = "4 days")
breaks <- as.Date(c(breaks_seq, dates[1], date_split, dates[2]))
breaks <- sort(unique(breaks))

#метки дат
labels <- map_chr(breaks, \(d) {
  label <- if (d == dates[1] || d == dates[2] || d == date_split) {
    format(d, "%d<br>%b")
  } else {
    format(d, "%d")
  }
  
  if (d %in% c(dates[1], date_split, dates[2])) {
    paste0("**", label, "**")
  } else {
    label
  }
})

p <- ggplot(ooni_long, aes(measurement_start_day, count, fill = status)) +
  geom_col(
    width = 0.95,
    color = "white",
    linewidth = 0.20
  ) +
  scale_fill_manual(
    values = status_colors[present_statuses],
    drop = TRUE
  ) +
  scale_x_date(
    breaks = breaks,
    labels = labels,
    expand = expansion(mult = c(0.01, 0.01)),
    guide = guide_axis()
  ) +
  scale_y_continuous(
    breaks = seq(0, 1750, by = 250),
    labels = scales::label_number(big.mark = " "),
    expand = c(0, 0)
  ) +
  annotate(
    "text",
    x = dates[1],             
    y = 1750,              
    label = "тестов в день", 
    hjust = 0.15,             
    vjust = 0.5,          
    size = 6,            
    color = "#34495e",
    family = "PT Sans"
  ) +
  coord_cartesian(ylim = c(0, 1750), clip = "off") +
  labs(
    title = "**Аномалии доступа к Telegram в России резко<br>участились после 14 марта**",
    subtitle = subtitle_text,
    y = NULL,
    x = NULL,
    caption = caption
  ) +
  theme_minimal(base_family = "PT Sans", base_size = 16) +
  theme(
    plot.title.position = "plot",
    plot.caption.position = "plot",
    plot.title = element_markdown(family = "PT Sans", size = 28, 
                                  face = "bold", lineheight = 1.1, 
                                  margin = margin(b = 12)),
    plot.subtitle = element_markdown(family = "PT Sans", size = 22, 
                                     color = "#2c3e50", lineheight = 1.1, 
                                     margin = margin(b = 35)),
    plot.caption = element_text(family = "PT Sans", size = 14, 
                                color = "#7f8c8d", lineheight = 0.7, 
                                margin = margin(t = 25)),
    axis.text.x.bottom = element_markdown(
      size = 16,
      color = "#34495e",
      lineheight = 0.9
    ),
    axis.text.y = element_text(family = "PT Sans", size = 16, color = "#34495e"),
    legend.position = "none",
    panel.grid = element_blank(),
    plot.margin = margin(25, 25, 25, 25)
  )

p

ggsave(
  "ooni_telegram_ru.png",
  p,
  width = 9,
  height = 9,
  dpi = 300,
  bg = "white"
)