Skip to content

Instantly share code, notes, and snippets.

Show Gist options
  • Select an option

  • Save skyler1537/eee6a8cdf43475dbfe3353e071141925 to your computer and use it in GitHub Desktop.

Select an option

Save skyler1537/eee6a8cdf43475dbfe3353e071141925 to your computer and use it in GitHub Desktop.
Which Hyatts Are Most Likely to Get Devalued? A Data-Driven Look — Gondola AI Research

Which Hyatts Are Most Likely to Get Devalued? A Data-Driven Look

Date: March 27, 2026 Author: Gondola AI Research Data: 1,127,000+ rate observations across 1,927 Hyatt properties (pipeline run March 16, 2026)


There's been a lot of speculation about which Hyatt properties will get hit hardest under the new award chart. Rather than guess, we ran the numbers. Gondola monitors rates across nearly 2,000 Hyatt properties worldwide, and the metric that matters here is CPP (cents per point) — the ratio of what a room costs in cash versus what it costs in points.

Higher CPP = Hyatt is giving away more value per point = more incentive for Hyatt to raise the points price.

The program-wide median is 1.63 cpp. Anything significantly above that means Hyatt is leaving money on the table, and those properties are the most exposed to devaluation — whether through category changes or aggressive dynamic peak pricing.

The Properties Most at Risk

Tier 1: Near-Certain Targets (Median CPP 3.5+)

These properties are in the top 1.3% of the entire Hyatt portfolio by CPP. They represent the biggest gap between cash rates and points pricing.

Property Location Median Cash/Night Points/Night Median CPP Portfolio Rank
Park Hyatt Milano Milan, Italy $1,681 40,000 4.24 #10
Park Hyatt Paris-Vendôme Paris, France $1,625 40,000 4.19 #11
Park Hyatt New York New York, USA $1,436 45,000 4.06 #13
Park Hyatt Maldives Hadahaa Hadahaa, Maldives $932 30,000 3.80 #17
Alila Ventana Big Sur Big Sur, USA $2,285 90,000 3.46 #22
Park Hyatt Kyoto Kyoto, Japan $1,167 45,000 3.37 #25

At 4+ cpp, properties like Park Hyatt Milano and Paris are delivering more than double the program average in redemption value. Under any rational pricing model, these are the first to get repriced.

Tier 2: Strong Pressure (Median CPP 2.5–3.5)

Property Location Median Cash/Night Points/Night Median CPP
Park Hyatt Tokyo Tokyo, Japan $1,018 40,000 3.02
Park Hyatt St. Kitts Basseterre, St. Kitts $653 25,000 2.89
Impression Isla Mujeres by Secrets Isla Mujeres, Mexico $1,468 50,000 2.84
Andaz Mayakoba Playa del Carmen, Mexico $556 29,000 2.73
The Beekman (Thompson) New York, USA $563 25,000 2.69
Park Hyatt Zurich Zürich, Switzerland $1,100 40,000 2.68
Park Hyatt Vienna Vienna, Austria $753 30,000 2.64
Hyatt House Tokyo Shibuya Tokyo, Japan $418 20,000 2.51
Andaz Maui Kihei, USA $907 45,000 2.42

Tier 3: Moderate Pressure — Dynamic Pricing Will Handle These

421 properties fall in the 2.0–3.0 cpp range. These likely won't see category changes, but expect more peak and super-peak pricing on high-demand dates. The new chart structure gives Hyatt enough pricing tiers to capture this value without moving categories.

The Japan Deep Dive

Japan is the most-discussed market in the devaluation conversation, and for good reason — tourism demand has pushed cash rates well above points pricing at premium properties. But the exposure isn't uniform:

Property City Median CPP Cash/Night Points/Night
Park Hyatt Kyoto Kyoto 3.37 $1,167 45,000
Park Hyatt Tokyo Tokyo 3.02 $1,018 40,000
Hyatt House Tokyo Shibuya Tokyo 2.51 $418 20,000
Hyatt Centric Ginza Tokyo Tokyo 2.28 $571 30,000
Grand Hyatt Fukuoka Fukuoka 2.15 $252 15,000
Andaz Tokyo Toranomon Hills Tokyo 1.96 $656 40,000
Hyatt House Kanazawa Kanazawa 1.94 $126 8,000
Caption by Hyatt Namba Osaka Osaka 1.81 $129 9,500
Hyatt Regency Yokohama Yokohama 1.74 $169 12,000
Hyatt Regency Tokyo Tokyo 1.72 $275 20,000
Hyatt Regency Hakone Hakone 1.70 $348 25,000
Hyatt Place Kyoto Kyoto 1.66 $117 9,500
Hotel Toranomon Hills (Unbound) Tokyo 1.65 $436 30,000
Hyatt Centric Kanazawa Kanazawa 1.58 $142 12,000
Grand Hyatt Tokyo Tokyo 1.44 $464 40,000
Hyatt Regency Naha, Okinawa Naha 1.33 $136 12,000
Hyatt Regency Kyoto Kyoto 1.19 $253 29,000
Park Hyatt Niseko Hanazono Kutchan 0.98 $294 40,000

Park Hyatt Kyoto and Tokyo are clearly exposed. But most Japan properties below 2.0 cpp are priced fairly for their cash rates. Interestingly, Andaz Tokyo (1.96 cpp) is NOT as overvalued as people assume — it's already close to fair. And Park Hyatt Niseko at just 0.98 cpp is actually underpriced in cash relative to its points cost.

Properties That Are Probably Safe

Grand Cypress Orlando (the "Costco Hot Dog")

Metric Value
Median CPP 1.94
Median Cash $241/night
Points/Night 15,000
Portfolio Rank #536 of 1,927

At 1.94 cpp, Grand Cypress is close to fair value for a Cat 4. Cash rates at $241/night are solidly within Cat 4 territory. Its role as a conference hotel and the fact that it's not walking distance to the parks likely keeps it anchored. The Costco Hot Dog of Hyatt stays lives another day.

Alila Villas Uluwatu

At 2.00 cpp (rank #475), the commenter who said "the price point is not that bad, it's often ~2cpp" nailed it. This property is middle-of-the-pack — not enough gap to justify a devaluation.

Secrets Akumal

At 2.09 cpp (rank #404), the all-inclusive pricing absorbs much of the cash rate premium. Low risk for a significant move.

Hyatt Regency Boston

At 1.69 cpp (rank #1,196), this one's been called out as a Cat 5 that "should be a 4." The data agrees — there's zero upward pressure here. If anything, the chart reset could push it down.

The Big Picture

Pressure Level CPP Range Properties % of Portfolio
Extreme > 5.0 4 0.2%
Strong 3.0 – 5.0 49 2.5%
Moderate 2.0 – 3.0 421 21.8%
Fair value 1.5 – 2.0 659 34.2%
Safe / undervalued < 1.5 774 40.2%

40% of the Hyatt portfolio is currently at or below fair value. Only about 50 properties (~2.5%) face strong devaluation pressure, and just 4 are in the extreme category. The new dynamic pricing tiers give Hyatt the tools to capture value on peak dates without needing to move categories — which is exactly what they said the chart changes were designed to do.

Our Prediction

The Park Hyatts (Milano, Paris, New York, Kyoto, Tokyo, Maldives), Ventana Big Sur, and the Jamaica all-inclusives will see the most aggressive dynamic pricing. Actual category changes will be limited thanks to the new tier structure, but the effective cost of staying at these properties during peak season will climb 30–50% through super-peak pricing.

The silver lining: shoulder season and off-peak dates should still offer strong value at most properties. For the 40% of properties currently at or below 1.5 cpp, the chart change may actually be neutral — or even beneficial if some Cat 5s drop to Cat 4.

Methodology

1,127,000+ rate observations across 1,927 Hyatt properties worldwide, collected via Gondola's hotel rate monitoring platform (pipeline run March 16, 2026). CPP (cents per point) calculated as cash rate in USD divided by points cost, multiplied by 100. Cash rates converted to USD using live exchange rates. Observations filtered to valid, non-anomalous rates. Median CPP used as the primary metric to reduce the impact of outlier pricing on individual dates.

Powered by Gondola — the app that monitors your hotel booking and automatically rebooks when rates drop.

Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment