Date: March 11, 2026 Author: Gondola AI Research Data: Deduplicated rate observations across 9,270 Marriott Bonvoy properties, covering check-in dates from March 2026 through February 2027 (pipeline run: Feb 26, 2026) Gist: https://gist.github.com/skyler1537/eb1c223a5a7683642d1c7491ed8206b0
Marriott is increasing the points top-up limit on Free Night Certificates (FNCs) from 15,000 to 25,000 points. This impacts every FNC tier:
| Certificate | Card Example | Old Max (15k top-up) | New Max (25k top-up) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35k/night | Bonvoy Boundless | 50,000 pts | 60,000 pts |
| 50k/night | Bonvoy Brilliant (annual) | 65,000 pts | 75,000 pts |
| 85k/night | Bonvoy Brilliant (spend bonus) | 100,000 pts | 110,000 pts |
We analyzed deduplicated rate observations across 9,270 Marriott Bonvoy properties — covering check-in dates from March 2026 through February 2027 — to quantify how meaningful this change is for each certificate tier.
| FNC Value | Old Cap | New Cap | New Properties Unlocked | % Increase | Nights Bookable (median) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35k cert | 50,000 pts | 60,000 pts | 471 | 5.8% | 73% of nights |
| 50k cert | 65,000 pts | 75,000 pts | 206 | 2.4% | 67% of nights |
| 85k cert | 100,000 pts | 110,000 pts | 56 | 0.6% | 65% of nights |
The 35k cert holders benefit the most, gaining 471 properties. The 50k cert unlocks 206 premium properties. The 85k cert gains are smaller in number (56) but include some of the most iconic properties in the portfolio.
The 35k FNC sees the largest impact from the top-up increase. The new 60,000-point ceiling opens up a densely populated tier of mid-to-upper properties.
| Bucket | Avg Points/Night | Properties | % of Portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FNC (up to 35k) | ≤ 35,000 | 6,523 | 70.4% |
| Old top-up (35k–50k) | 35,001–50,000 | 1,563 | 16.9% |
| Subtotal: Old cap | ≤ 50,000 | 8,086 | 87.2% |
| NEW top-up unlock (50k–60k) | 50,001–60,000 | 471 | 5.1% |
| Subtotal: New cap | ≤ 60,000 | 8,557 | 92.3% |
| Still out of reach | > 60,000 | 713 | 7.7% |
Since Marriott uses dynamic pricing, we tracked per-night points costs for check-in dates from March 2026 through February 2027 to measure real-world availability.
| Metric | Old 50k Cap | New 60k Cap | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median % of nights bookable | 38.9% | 73.3% | +34.4 pp |
| Mean % of nights bookable | 36.9% | 73.0% | +36.1 pp |
| Availability | Properties |
|---|---|
| 90–100% of nights | 33 |
| 75–90% of nights | 167 |
| 50–75% of nights | 260 |
| 25–50% of nights | 12 |
| 0–25% of nights | 0 |
Over a third of the 471 newly unlocked properties (200) are bookable 75%+ of the year.
| Brand | Properties | Notable Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Autograph Collection | 62 | Cadillac Hotel Miami Beach, Hotel Effie Sandestin, Montcalm East London |
| Marriott Hotels & Resorts | 51 | New York Downtown, Dubai Harbour, London Canary Wharf |
| Marriott Vacation Club | 35 | Phuket Beach Club, Grande Vista Orlando, Custom House Boston |
| Residence Inn | 32 | Vail, Ocean City MD, Boston Back Bay/Fenway, San Diego Bayfront |
| Sheraton | 27 | Diana Majestic Milan, Paris CDG, Lincoln Harbor |
| Westin | 27 | Long Beach, Austin Downtown, Yokohama |
| Design Hotels | 23 | Sir Victor Barcelona, Inhabit London, Baja Club La Paz |
| Tribute Portfolio | 20 | Hotel Rumbao San Juan, Hotel Zachary Chicago, Burton House Beverly Hills |
| JW Marriott | 19 | Mumbai Juhu, Dongdaemun Seoul, Istanbul Bosphorus, Nara |
| Courtyard | 19 | Nashville Downtown, Manhattan Upper East Side |
| SpringHill Suites | 18 | Anaheim Resort, Nashville Convention Center, Manhattan Chelsea |
| Luxury Collection | 12 | Al Wathba Abu Dhabi, Paragraph Tbilisi, Amoh Rhodes |
| St. Regis | 12 | Amman, Mina Seyahi Dubai |
| Ritz-Carlton | 9 | Budapest, Sanya Yalong Bay, Al Bustan Palace Muscat |
| MOXY | 9 | NYC Times Square, Brooklyn Williamsburg |
US dominates with 275 properties (58%):
| State | Properties | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| California | 46 | Westin Long Beach, Residence Inn Santa Barbara, multiple San Diego properties |
| Florida | 38 | Hotel Effie Sandestin, Cadillac Hotel Miami Beach, multiple Orlando properties |
| New York | 31 | New York Marriott Downtown, Moxy Times Square, Aloft Chelsea |
| Tennessee | 12 | SpringHill Suites & Courtyard Nashville Downtown |
| Massachusetts | 12 | Residence Inn Boston Back Bay/Fenway, MVC Custom House |
| South Carolina | 11 | Multiple Hilton Head & Charleston properties |
International: Canada (25), UK (14), UAE (13), Spain (11), Japan (9), Germany (9), France (8)
| Property | Location | Avg Points/Night |
|---|---|---|
| The Ritz-Carlton, Budapest | Budapest, Hungary | 59,056 |
| JW Marriott Istanbul Bosphorus | Istanbul, Turkey | 59,058 |
| Cadillac Hotel & Beach Club, Autograph Collection | Miami Beach, FL | 59,846 |
| W Philadelphia | Philadelphia, PA | 59,922 |
| The Westin Yokohama | Yokohama, Japan | 58,954 |
| JW Marriott Dongdaemun Square Seoul | Seoul, South Korea | 58,918 |
| Hotel Zachary Chicago, Tribute Portfolio | Chicago, IL | 59,708 |
| Al Wathba, Luxury Collection Desert Resort, Abu Dhabi | Abu Dhabi, UAE | 58,777 |
| Moxy NYC Times Square | New York, NY | 59,248 |
| The Westin Long Beach | Long Beach, CA | 50,182 |
| SpringHill Suites Anaheim Resort | Anaheim, CA | 50,009 |
The 50k FNC — the most commonly discussed certificate — now reaches up to 75,000 points/night, unlocking aspirational properties that were previously just out of reach.
| Bucket | Avg Points/Night | Properties | % of Portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FNC (up to 50k) | ≤ 50,000 | 8,086 | 87.2% |
| Old top-up (50k–65k) | 50,001–65,000 | 625 | 6.7% |
| Subtotal: Old cap | ≤ 65,000 | 8,711 | 94.0% |
| NEW top-up unlock (65k–75k) | 65,001–75,000 | 206 | 2.2% |
| Subtotal: New cap | ≤ 75,000 | 8,917 | 96.2% |
| Still out of reach | > 75,000 | 353 | 3.8% |
| Metric | Old 65k Cap | New 75k Cap | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median % of nights bookable | 37.7% | 66.5% | +28.8 pp |
| Mean % of nights bookable | 37.7% | 67.3% | +29.6 pp |
The new top-up nearly doubles the number of bookable nights at these properties.
| Availability | Properties | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| 90–100% of nights | 11 | Essentially always bookable |
| 75–90% of nights | 43 | Bookable most of the year |
| 50–75% of nights | 134 | Bookable more often than not |
| 25–50% of nights | 19 | Seasonal/weekend availability |
| 0–25% of nights | 0 | None — every property has meaningful availability |
| Property | Avg Pts | % Nights ≤75k (New) | % Nights ≤65k (Old) | Gain | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiji Marriott Resort Momi Bay | 67,370 | 100% | 29% | +71 pp | 46,000 | 75,000 |
| Ritz-Carlton, Istanbul | 65,583 | 94% | 47% | +47 pp | 38,000 | 82,000 |
| Courtyard Santa Monica | 66,785 | 93% | 56% | +37 pp | 52,000 | 98,000 |
| Sheraton Kauai Coconut Beach | 68,846 | 92% | 24% | +68 pp | 45,600 | 84,000 |
| Renaissance New York Harlem | 66,806 | 92% | 43% | +49 pp | 45,000 | 89,000 |
| Renaissance Barcelona | 65,125 | 90% | 40% | +50 pp | 42,000 | 77,000 |
| JW Marriott SF Union Square | 66,296 | 79% | 63% | +16 pp | 49,000 | 94,000 |
| Moana Surfrider Waikiki | 69,934 | 74% | 49% | +25 pp | 52,000 | 105,000 |
| Grand Cayman Marriott Resort | 73,145 | 72% | 43% | +29 pp | 58,000 | 119,000 |
| JW Marriott Anaheim Resort | 68,805 | 70% | 46% | +24 pp | 47,000 | 90,000 |
| Sheraton Maui Resort & Spa | 72,213 | 66% | 40% | +26 pp | 43,200 | 112,000 |
| Courtyard Anaheim Theme Park Entrance | 73,375 | 65% | 20% | +45 pp | 44,800 | 98,000 |
| W San Francisco | 68,815 | 64% | 51% | +13 pp | 47,000 | 94,000 |
| Ritz-Carlton, New Orleans | 70,608 | 64% | 45% | +19 pp | 52,000 | 92,000 |
| Westin Anaheim Resort | 68,982 | 64% | 43% | +21 pp | 49,000 | 92,000 |
| Ritz-Carlton, Philadelphia | 69,963 | 62% | 43% | +19 pp | 47,000 | 103,000 |
| Walt Disney World Swan Reserve | 71,715 | 62% | 41% | +21 pp | 40,800 | 96,000 |
| W Boston | 69,352 | 58% | 37% | +21 pp | 38,400 | 86,000 |
| Ritz-Carlton, Chicago | 71,703 | 54% | 29% | +25 pp | 44,000 | 93,000 |
| Le Méridien New York, Central Park | 74,316 | 53% | 25% | +28 pp | 50,000 | 103,000 |
| JW Marriott Clearwater Beach | 73,256 | 50% | 33% | +17 pp | 45,000 | 98,000 |
| Algonquin Hotel Times Square | 74,546 | 51% | 25% | +26 pp | 47,000 | 103,000 |
Standout: The Courtyard Anaheim Theme Park Entrance sees the biggest swing — from bookable only 20% of nights to 65%. Families planning Disney trips will find this especially meaningful.
| Brand | Properties | Notable Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Autograph Collection | 32 | Algonquin Hotel NYC, Casa Monica St. Augustine, Viewline Snowmass |
| JW Marriott | 18 | Clearwater Beach, Anaheim, Desert Springs, Turnberry |
| Ritz-Carlton | 15 | Chicago, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Charlotte, Rancho Mirage |
| Marriott Hotels & Resorts | 15 | San Juan Casino, Grand Cayman, Fort Lauderdale Harbor Beach |
| Design Hotels | 15 | Austin Proper, Drift Santa Barbara, 11 Howard NYC |
| W Hotels | 14 | San Francisco, Boston, Hollywood, Fort Lauderdale, Hoboken |
| Renaissance | 14 | NYC Midtown, Nashville, Honolulu, Chelsea NYC |
| Westin | 10 | Copley Place Boston, Nashville, Anaheim, Denver Airport |
| Courtyard | 10 | Anaheim Theme Park Entrance, multiple Manhattan locations |
| Luxury Collection | 7 | Palace Hotel SF, Perry Lane Savannah, Caresse Bodrum |
| Le Méridien | 7 | NYC Central Park, NYC Fifth Ave, Barcelona, Mauritius |
| Residence Inn | 6 | Maui Wailea, multiple Manhattan locations |
| Sheraton | 6 | Maui Resort, Kauai Coconut Beach, Grande Tokyo Bay |
| St. Regis | 5 | Langkawi, Singapore, Riyadh |
US: 112 properties (54%):
| State | Properties | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| California | 26 | Beverly Hills Marriott, W Hollywood, W LA, Coronado, Napa Valley, multiple SF properties |
| New York | 23 | Algonquin Hotel, Le Méridien Central Park, W Hoboken, multiple Manhattan Courtyards |
| Florida | 14 | JW Marriott Clearwater Beach, W Fort Lauderdale, Walt Disney World Swan Reserve |
| Hawaii | 8 | Moana Surfrider Waikiki, Sheraton Maui, Residence Inn Maui Wailea, Marriott Kaua'i Beach Club |
| Massachusetts | 7 | W Boston, Westin Copley Place, Courtyard Copley Square, The Envoy |
| Tennessee | 4 | Union Station Nashville, Renaissance Nashville, Gaylord Opryland |
| South Carolina | 4 | Hotel Bella Grace Charleston, Grand Bohemian Greenville |
| Colorado | 3 | Viewline Snowmass, Westin Denver Airport, Sheraton Mountain Vista Vail |
International (94 properties across 40+ countries): Mexico (11), Spain (8), Greece (6), Italy (6), Japan (5), Caribbean (Grand Cayman, San Juan)
Resorts & Destinations:
| Property | Location | Avg Points/Night |
|---|---|---|
| Moana Surfrider, Westin Resort & Spa | Waikiki Beach, HI | 69,934 |
| JW Marriott Clearwater Beach Resort & Spa | Clearwater Beach, FL | 73,256 |
| Grand Cayman Marriott Resort | Seven Mile Beach, Cayman Islands | 73,145 |
| San Juan Marriott Resort & Stellaris Casino | San Juan, PR | 74,887 |
| W Punta de Mita | Punta de Mita, Mexico | 74,854 |
| Sheraton Maui Resort & Spa | Lahaina, HI | 72,213 |
| Viewline Resort Snowmass, Autograph Collection | Snowmass Village, CO | 74,305 |
| Le Méridien Ile Maurice | Mauritius | 74,751 |
Premium City Hotels:
| Property | Location | Avg Points/Night |
|---|---|---|
| The Ritz-Carlton, Chicago | Chicago, IL | 71,703 |
| The Ritz-Carlton, New Orleans | New Orleans, LA | 70,608 |
| The Ritz-Carlton, Philadelphia | Philadelphia, PA | 69,963 |
| W San Francisco | San Francisco, CA | 68,815 |
| W Boston | Boston, MA | 69,352 |
| W Hollywood | Los Angeles, CA | 66,881 |
| Le Méridien New York, Central Park | New York, NY | 74,316 |
| Palace Hotel, Luxury Collection, San Francisco | San Francisco, CA | 72,611 |
Family & Theme Park:
| Property | Location | Avg Points/Night |
|---|---|---|
| Courtyard by Marriott Anaheim Theme Park Entrance | Anaheim, CA | 73,375 |
| The Westin Anaheim Resort | Anaheim, CA | 68,982 |
| JW Marriott Anaheim Resort | Anaheim, CA | 68,805 |
| Walt Disney World Swan Reserve, Autograph Collection | Lake Buena Vista, FL | 71,715 |
| JW Marriott Orlando Grande Lakes | Orlando, FL | 69,484 |
The 85k FNC already covers 97.4% of the portfolio at base value. The top-up increase raises the ceiling from 100,000 to 110,000 points, unlocking the ultra-premium tier — the most iconic and aspirational properties in the entire Marriott portfolio.
| Bucket | Avg Points/Night | Properties | % of Portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FNC (up to 85k) | ≤ 85,000 | 9,028 | 97.4% |
| Old top-up (85k–100k) | 85,001–100,000 | 95 | 1.0% |
| Subtotal: Old cap | ≤ 100,000 | 9,123 | 98.4% |
| NEW top-up unlock (100k–110k) | 100,001–110,000 | 56 | 0.6% |
| Subtotal: New cap | ≤ 110,000 | 9,179 | 99.0% |
| Still out of reach | > 110,000 | 91 | 1.0% |
| Metric | Old 100k Cap | New 110k Cap | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median % of nights bookable | 43.3% | 65.0% | +21.7 pp |
| Mean % of nights bookable | 43.2% | 63.4% | +20.2 pp |
| Availability | Properties |
|---|---|
| 75–90% of nights | 6 |
| 50–75% of nights | 46 |
| 25–50% of nights | 5 |
| 0–25% of nights | 0 |
Ultra-premium properties show more price volatility, but 52 of 56 (93%) are bookable on more than half of available nights.
| Brand | Properties |
|---|---|
| Luxury Collection | 10 |
| Ritz-Carlton | 8 |
| Autograph Collection | 5 |
| Marriott Vacation Club | 5 |
| Design Hotels | 4 |
| EDITION | 4 |
| Marriott Hotels & Resorts | 4 |
| W Hotels | 4 |
| JW Marriott | 3 |
| St. Regis | 3 |
| Renaissance | 2 |
| Blue Diamond (All-Inclusive) | 2 |
| Country | Properties | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 15 | Maui, Kauai, Key West, Bal Harbour, South Beach, Bachelor Gulch, St. Regis SF |
| Barbados | 4 | Tamarind, Treasure Beach, Colony Club, Waves (all Elegant Hotels AI) |
| France | 4 | Paris Arc de Triomphe, Paris Vendôme, Paris Champs-Élysées, Cannes |
| United Kingdom | 3 | London EDITION, JW Marriott Grosvenor House, London Park Lane |
| Mexico | 3 | Riviera Maya EDITION, Paraiso de la Bonita, Almare Isla Mujeres |
| Greece | 2 | O by Myconian Mykonos, Stamna Sifnos |
| Italy | 2 | The Pantheon Rome, W Rome |
| Thailand | 2 | Vana Belle Koh Samui, W Koh Samui |
Hawaii & Beach Resorts:
| Property | Location | Avg Points/Night |
|---|---|---|
| Wailea Beach Resort - Marriott, Maui | Kihei, HI | 102,656 |
| Koloa Landing Resort, Autograph Collection | Poipu, Kauai, HI | 102,710 |
| Mauna Kea Beach Hotel, Autograph Collection | Kamuela, HI | 103,419 |
| The Westin Nanea Ocean Villas, Ka'anapali | Lahaina, HI | 107,649 |
| The Ritz-Carlton Maui, Kapalua | Kapalua, HI | 107,733 |
| W Koh Samui | Koh Samui, Thailand | 103,372 |
| Vana Belle, Luxury Collection, Koh Samui | Koh Samui, Thailand | 101,413 |
European Icons:
| Property | Location | Avg Points/Night |
|---|---|---|
| The London EDITION | London, UK | 101,810 |
| The Madrid EDITION | Madrid, Spain | 102,247 |
| JW Marriott Grosvenor House London | London, UK | 102,827 |
| Renaissance Paris Vendôme | Paris, France | 106,725 |
| Paris Marriott Champs-Élysées | Paris, France | 107,714 |
| The Pantheon Iconic Rome, Autograph Collection | Rome, Italy | 107,150 |
| W Rome | Rome, Italy | 107,354 |
| Koenigshof, Luxury Collection, Munich | Munich, Germany | 108,012 |
Premium US City & Resort:
| Property | Location | Avg Points/Night |
|---|---|---|
| The Ritz-Carlton Bal Harbour, Miami | Bal Harbour, FL | 103,335 |
| The Ritz-Carlton, South Beach | Miami Beach, FL | 103,676 |
| W South Beach | Miami Beach, FL | 103,705 |
| The Ritz-Carlton Georgetown, Washington, D.C. | Washington, DC | 107,451 |
| The St. Regis San Francisco | San Francisco, CA | 108,891 |
| The Ritz-Carlton, Bachelor Gulch | Avon, CO | 108,730 |
| W Aspen | Aspen, CO | 101,302 |
| La Concha Key West, Autograph Collection | Key West, FL | 102,466 |
| JW Marriott Essex House New York | New York, NY | 106,812 |
| The Luxury Collection Hotel Manhattan Midtown | New York, NY | 104,574 |
Exotic & All-Inclusive:
| Property | Location | Avg Points/Night |
|---|---|---|
| JW Marriott Maldives Resort & Spa | Vagaru, Maldives | 108,711 |
| Higashiyama Niseko Village, Ritz-Carlton Reserve | Niseko, Japan | 108,820 |
| The St. Regis Bali Resort | Nusa Dua, Bali | 109,051 |
| The St. Regis Bermuda Resort | Town of St. George, Bermuda | 106,411 |
| The Riviera Maya EDITION at Kanai | Playa del Carmen, Mexico | 109,674 |
| Almare, Luxury Collection, Isla Mujeres (AI) | Isla Mujeres, Mexico | 108,308 |
| The Romanos, Luxury Collection, Costa Navarino | Peloponnese, Greece | 108,517 |
For context, here's the full distribution of Marriott properties by average nightly points cost:
Points Range │ Properties │ % of Portfolio
────────────────┼────────────┼───────────────
0–10k │ 187 │ 2.0%
10k–20k │ 1,796 │ 19.4%
20k–30k │ 3,489 │ 37.6% ◄ largest bucket
30k–40k │ 1,753 │ 18.9%
40k–50k │ 861 │ 9.3%
────────────────┼────────────┼─────────────── ← 35k FNC new cap (60k)
50k–55k │ 266 │ 2.9%
55k–60k │ 205 │ 2.2%
────────────────┼────────────┼─────────────── ← 50k FNC old cap (65k)
60k–65k │ 154 │ 1.7%
65k–70k │ 107 │ 1.2% ┐
70k–75k │ 99 │ 1.1% ┘ 50k FNC new unlock
────────────────┼────────────┼─────────────── ← 50k FNC new cap (75k)
75k–85k │ 111 │ 1.2%
85k–100k │ 95 │ 1.0%
────────────────┼────────────┼─────────────── ← 85k FNC old cap (100k)
100k–150k │ 133 │ 1.4% ◄ 85k FNC new unlock (100k-110k)
150k+ │ 14 │ 0.2%
The top-up increase from 15k to 25k is a meaningful upgrade across all FNC tiers. The impact goes beyond just unlocking new properties — it nearly doubles the number of bookable nights at newly accessible properties thanks to dynamic pricing variability.
The 35k FNC sees the biggest absolute gain (471 properties), but the 50k and 85k FNCs unlock the most aspirational properties — Ritz-Carltons, W Hotels, EDITIONs, Luxury Collection resorts, and St. Regis properties that represent exactly the kind of stays where free night certificates deliver the most value.
Question: Are there now more properties concentrated just above the new top-up caps — i.e., has Marriott repriced upward in response to the higher ceilings?
Data: We compared the same 9,020 Marriott properties observed in all three 2026 pipeline runs — February 26 (baseline, before the announcement), March 16 (two weeks after), and April 16 (five weeks after). Each property's average nightly points cost was computed from deduplicated rate observations (1 row per property/night, cheapest rate).
There is still no evidence of systematic price clustering above the new FNC caps five weeks after the change took effect. The bands just above each cap moved by small, offsetting amounts — not the kind of accumulation you'd expect from a structural repricing. The overall portfolio has drifted up by a few hundred points since February, but essentially all of that drift happened between February and March; prices held flat between March and April.
| Points Band | Feb | Mar | Apr | Δ Feb→Apr | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 35k | 6,345 | 6,214 | 6,223 | -122 | |
| 35k–50k | 1,535 | 1,611 | 1,608 | +73 | |
| 50k–55k | 257 | 267 | 277 | +20 | |
| 55k–60k | 195 | 190 | 188 | -7 | ← 35k FNC new cap |
| 60k–65k | 154 | 146 | 145 | -9 | ← just above 35k cap |
| 65k–70k | 103 | 123 | 123 | +20 | |
| 70k–75k | 95 | 101 | 96 | +1 | ← 50k FNC new cap |
| 75k–80k | 54 | 63 | 63 | +9 | ← just above 50k cap |
| 80k–85k | 51 | 50 | 45 | -6 | |
| 85k–90k | 36 | 46 | 48 | +12 | |
| 90k–95k | 29 | 36 | 29 | +0 | |
| 95k–100k | 25 | 25 | 21 | -4 | |
| 100k–105k | 24 | 25 | 27 | +3 | |
| 105k–110k | 30 | 26 | 25 | -5 | ← 85k FNC new cap |
| 110k–115k | 18 | 23 | 22 | +4 | ← just above 85k cap |
| 115k–120k | 20 | 18 | 25 | +5 |
The bolded bands sitting immediately above each new cap — the bands that would fill up first if Marriott were repricing in response to the new ceilings — moved by -9, +9, and +4 over the full two-month window. The 60k–65k band (just above the 35k cert's new ceiling) actually shrank.
For each cap, we tracked which properties entered or left the band just above it:
35k FNC — 60k–65k band:
- 53 properties moved up into the band (were ≤60k in Feb, now 60k–65k)
- 7 properties moved down into the band (were >65k, now 60k–65k)
- 69 properties left the band entirely
- Net: -9 (band shrank)
50k FNC — 75k–80k band:
- 26 moved up, 7 moved down, 24 moved out
- Net: +9 (modest inflow)
85k FNC — 110k–120k band:
- 17 moved up, 5 moved down, 13 moved out
- Net: +9 (negligible at this portfolio size — ~0.1%)
Across all 9,020 matched properties:
| Window | Median change | Mean change | % up | % down |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb → Mar | +552 | +688 | 76% | 24% |
| Mar → Apr | -34 | -55 | 47% | 53% |
| Feb → Apr (total) | +518 | +633 | 71% | 29% |
Feb → Apr percentiles: p10 -887, p25 -111, p50 +518, p75 +1,271, p90 +2,379.
Almost all of the upward drift happened in the first two weeks after the announcement (Feb → Mar: +552 median). Between March and April, prices actually settled slightly downward (-34 median). That's the opposite of what you'd see if Marriott were progressively repricing upward — it looks more like the normal seasonal shift that happened as the check-in window rolled forward into spring, and then stabilized.
| FNC Cap | Lost (was bookable, now above) | Gained (was above, now bookable) | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60,000 (35k cert) | 60 | 24 | -36 |
| 75,000 (50k cert) | 35 | 11 | -24 |
| 110,000 (85k cert) | 18 | 3 | -15 |
Crossings skew modestly negative at all three thresholds, but the counts are small relative to the 9,020-property universe — -0.4% at the 35k tier, -0.3% at the 50k tier, -0.2% at the 85k tier. Thousands of properties remain newly unlocked by the top-up increase; a handful drifted back out.
Notable crossings (Feb → Apr):
Properties that became harder to book with the 50k FNC (crossed above 75k):
- The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas: 60,698 → 77,467 (+16,770)
- Royalton Negril (All-Inclusive): 69,716 → 89,288 (+19,572)
- Sheraton Mountain Vista Villas, Avon/Vail: 70,953 → 83,481 (+12,528)
Properties that became easier to book with the 50k FNC (crossed below 75k):
- The Westin Dubai Mina Seyahi Beach Resort & Marina: 80,877 → 68,120 (-12,757)
- The St. Regis Dubai, The Palm: 80,075 → 67,707 (-12,368)
- W Dubai — The Palm: 78,613 → 66,753 (-11,860)
- The Ritz-Carlton, Jeddah: 78,807 → 67,203 (-11,604)
Notable move at the 85k tier: The Ritz-Carlton Maui, Kapalua — one of the headline properties newly unlocked in the original analysis — drifted from 105,060 to 114,439 (+9,379), pushing it just above the 110k cap. The Ritz-Carlton, Dubai went the other way (117,752 → 108,702, -9,050) and is now within reach.
Two months after the top-up increase took effect, Marriott's dynamic award pricing has not shifted in a way that undercuts the new top-up benefit. The ~500-point median increase across the portfolio from February to April is small relative to the 10,000-point cap increase, and it's almost entirely a February-to-March move that has since leveled off. The properties newly unlocked by the higher ceilings remain overwhelmingly within reach, and there's no sign of Marriott systematically repricing upward into the new top-up bands.
This analysis uses deduplicated rate observations across 9,270 unique Marriott Bonvoy properties, extracted via Gondola AI's proprietary hotel rate monitoring platform (pipeline run: February 26, 2026). Data was deduplicated to 1 row per (property, date), keeping the cheapest points cost for each. The dataset covers check-in dates from March 2026 through February 2027.
For property-level bucketing, we computed the average nightly points cost across all available dates. For nightly availability analysis, we calculated the percentage of individual nights falling at or below each FNC cap threshold.
The April 2026 addendum compares three pipeline runs — February 26 (9,283 properties, 5.98M deduped observations), March 16 (9,129 properties, 2.97M deduped observations), and April 16 (9,028 properties, 2.72M deduped observations) — restricted to the 9,020 properties observed in all three runs, using average nightly points cost per property.
Powered by Gondola AI's proprietary hotel rate monitoring platform.