White Paper - Draft v1.0
Date: October 2025
Status: Concept Proposal
The world's oceans cover 71% of Earth's surface and remain one of the least monitored environments on our planet. This creates a critical gap in forensic investigations, environmental protection, and maritime security. An estimated 236,000 people drown annually worldwide, with countless homicide victims disposed of in water bodies. Current technology allows only reactive, localized searches that are expensive, time-consuming, and often unsuccessful.
We propose: The International Ocean Forensic Monitoring System (IOFMS) - a collaborative, multi-national network of seafloor sensors, autonomous vehicles, and AI-driven analysis to provide continuous ocean monitoring for forensic, scientific, and security purposes.
Key Benefits:
- Enable rapid detection and location of human remains in marine environments
- Provide closure for families of missing persons
- Increase conviction rates in maritime homicides
- Generate valuable scientific data on ocean health, climate, and ecosystems
- Enhance maritime security and illegal activity detection
- Create a model for international cooperation in ocean stewardship
Estimated Cost: €2-5 billion over 10 years (comparable to a single large infrastructure project)
Participating Entities: Interpol, Europol, National Police Forces, Oceanographic Institutes, Environmental Agencies
Marine environments present unique challenges for forensic investigations:
- Vast Search Areas: Ocean currents can transport remains hundreds of kilometers from disposal sites
- Limited Technology: Current sonar systems have poor resolution and cannot distinguish human from animal remains
- Time Sensitivity: Marine scavenging can destroy evidence within days
- Resource Intensity: Single search operations cost €50,000-500,000+ with low success rates
- Jurisdictional Complexity: International waters create legal and operational barriers
Real-world Impact:
- Thousands of unsolved maritime disappearances annually
- Families denied closure and proper burial
- Criminals emboldened by low detection rates
- Cold cases that could be solved with better technology
Only 20% of the ocean floor has been mapped in high resolution. This knowledge gap affects:
- Climate change modeling
- Biodiversity assessment
- Geological hazard prediction
- Resource management
Oceans are used for illicit activities that current monitoring cannot detect:
- Illegal dumping of hazardous materials
- Unreported fishing and environmental damage
- Smuggling routes
- Maritime boundary violations
Side-Scan Sonar
- ✅ Widely available, relatively affordable
- ❌ Low resolution, cannot identify object type
- ❌ Requires knowing approximate search area
- ❌ Time-consuming manual interpretation
ROV (Remotely Operated Vehicles)
- ✅ Visual confirmation capability
- ❌ Expensive (€500k-2M per unit)
- ❌ Slow coverage (1-5 km²/day)
- ❌ Requires ship deployment
Trained Search Dogs
- ✅ Can detect decomposition in shallow water
- ❌ Limited to calm, shallow environments
- ❌ Small search radius
- ❌ Not scalable
Divers
- ✅ Direct recovery
- ❌ Depth limited (~40m recreational, ~100m professional)
- ❌ Dangerous and expensive
- ❌ Tiny coverage area
Argo Program (Oceanographic Monitoring)
- 4,000 autonomous floats globally
- 30+ participating countries
- Monitors temperature, salinity, currents
- Budget: ~€30M annually
- Lesson: International ocean monitoring IS achievable
CTBTO Hydroacoustic Network (Nuclear Test Detection)
- 11 underwater listening stations
- Global coverage for nuclear test detection
- Lesson: Seafloor sensor networks already exist and work
Ocean Observatories Initiative (Scientific Research)
- Cabled observatories with multiple sensors
- Real-time data transmission
- Budget: ~€300M initial investment
- Lesson: Long-term seafloor installations are technically mature
A three-tier monitoring network:
Tier 1: Passive Seafloor Sensor Array
- 10,000+ acoustic and chemical sensors
- Strategic placement on ocean floor
- Detect impacts, chemical signatures, size/density of objects
- Battery life: 5-10 years
- Cost per unit: €5,000-15,000
Tier 2: Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs)
- 500+ roaming AUVs for investigation
- Respond to Tier 1 alerts
- High-resolution sonar and optical imaging
- Sample collection capability
- Recharge at seafloor docking stations
Tier 3: Surface Coordination & Analysis
- 50 regional coordination centers
- AI-powered data analysis
- Human expert verification
- Rapid response team deployment
- Integration with Interpol databases
Acoustic Sensors:
- Passive listening for impact signatures
- Active sonar for object characterization
- Triangulation from multiple sensors for precise location
- Distinguish object size, density, and composition
Chemical Sensors:
- Detect organic decomposition markers (cadaverine, putrescine)
- DNA sampling capability (future development)
- Pollution and hazmat detection (dual-use)
Environmental Sensors (Co-benefit):
- Temperature, salinity, pH
- Microplastic concentration
- Seismic activity
- Marine life acoustic signatures
Multi-stage filtering to minimize false positives:
- Primary Filter: Acoustic signature matching (eliminates 95% of non-targets)
- Chemical Verification: Decomposition markers present?
- Visual Inspection: AUV deploys for imaging
- Expert Review: Human forensic specialists verify
- Priority Classification: Fresh cases vs. historical remains
Machine Learning Training:
- Datasets from controlled experiments
- Historical case data
- Continuous improvement from field results
1. Sensor detects impact + human-sized object on seafloor
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2. Alert sent to regional coordination center (latency: <1 hour)
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3. AI assigns priority score based on:
- Location (near coast vs. open ocean)
- Signature characteristics
- Recent missing person reports
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4. If priority > threshold: Deploy AUV for investigation
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5. AUV arrives (12-48 hours), captures imagery
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6. Forensic expert reviews imagery remotely
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7. If confirmed human remains: Alert national police
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8. Rapid response team dispatched with recovery equipment
Budget: €50-100M
- Select pilot region (e.g., Mediterranean Sea)
- Deploy 100 sensors in high-traffic/high-risk areas
- 5 AUVs for response
- 3 coordination centers (Spain, Italy, Greece)
- 5-10 participating countries
Success Metrics:
- System detects >80% of test objects
- False positive rate <5%
- Response time <72 hours
- Cost per investigation <€50k
Budget: €200-500M
- Expand to 1,000 sensors
- 50 AUVs
- 10 coordination centers
- Cover major European seas (Baltic, North Sea, Mediterranean)
- Integration with Interpol systems
Budget: €2-4B
- 10,000+ sensors globally
- 500 AUVs
- 50 coordination centers
- All major maritime nations participating
- Full scientific and security capabilities operational
Annual Budget: €200-300M
- Ongoing maintenance and upgrades
- Sensor replacement (10-year lifecycle)
- Continuous AI improvement
- Expansion to deeper ocean zones
| Component | Unit Cost | Quantity | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seafloor Sensors | €10,000 | 10,000 | €100M |
| AUVs | €500,000 | 500 | €250M |
| Coordination Centers | €5M | 50 | €250M |
| Undersea Cable Infrastructure | - | - | €500M |
| AI Development | - | - | €100M |
| Installation & Deployment | - | - | €300M |
| 10-Year Operations & Maintenance | - | - | €2,500M |
| TOTAL (10 years) | €4B |
Per-Country Cost (50 participating nations): €80M over 10 years = €8M/year
For context: This is less than the cost of a single frigate, or 0.001% of EU GDP
Forensic Value:
- Solve 500-2,000 cold cases (estimated)
- Provide closure to 5,000-20,000 family members
- Increase homicide conviction rates by 10-15%
- Deter maritime disposal of victims (prevention value)
Scientific Value:
- High-resolution seafloor maps (worth billions to industry)
- Climate data improving models
- Marine biodiversity discovery
- Early warning for geological hazards
Security Value:
- Illegal dumping detection (€100M+ in fines annually)
- Smuggling route identification
- Maritime border monitoring
- Wreck and hazard identification for shipping
Economic Value:
- Data licensing to commercial sector (shipping, offshore energy)
- Insurance industry improved risk assessment
- Tourism (wreck diving, archaeological sites)
- Estimated annual economic value: €500M-1B
- Justice for victims and families
- International cooperation model
- Ocean literacy and public engagement
- Deterrent effect on maritime crime
- Scientific breakthroughs
- Climate action enabler
International Coordinating Body:
- Representatives from participating nations
- Hosted by Interpol or new dedicated agency
- Sets standards, protocols, priorities
- Manages shared infrastructure
Regional Operational Centers:
- Handle day-to-day monitoring
- Coordinate with national police forces
- Maintain equipment in their zones
National Interfaces:
- Each country has a liaison office
- Receives alerts for cases in their jurisdiction
- Contributes funding proportional to usage/benefit
Jurisdiction:
- Territorial waters: National police authority
- International waters: Interpol coordination
- Data sharing agreements required
- Evidence chain-of-custody protocols
Privacy & Ethics:
- System focuses on seafloor (not surveillance of living persons)
- Data protection compliant (GDPR, etc.)
- Independent oversight board
- Transparent reporting
International Waters:
- UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) compliance
- Agreements for sensor placement on high seas
- Precedent: Argo floats, CTBTO sensors already operate in international waters
Mature Technologies (TRL 8-9):
- ✅ Seafloor sensor networks (oil/gas industry, science)
- ✅ Autonomous underwater vehicles
- ✅ Acoustic detection systems
- ✅ Underwater communication networks
- ✅ AI object recognition
Developing Technologies (TRL 5-7):
- ⚙️ Chemical signature detection at scale
- ⚙️ Long-term battery systems (current: 5 years, goal: 10 years)
- ⚙️ AI trained specifically for forensic applications
Breakthrough Required (TRL 3-4):
- 🔬 Remote DNA identification (nice-to-have, not essential)
- 🔬 Quantum sensors (far future enhancement)
Assessment: System is buildable with existing technology; improvements will come during deployment.
Concerns:
- Acoustic pollution affecting marine life
- Physical infrastructure on seafloor
- Electromagnetic emissions from sensors
Mitigations:
- Sensors use passive listening primarily
- Active sonar only when triggered (low duty cycle)
- Frequencies chosen to minimize marine mammal impact
- Environmental impact assessment before each deployment
- Collaboration with marine biologists
- Net positive: System also monitors ocean health
Public Sector (60-70%):
- National police budgets (justice ministries)
- Interpol/Europol operational funds
- EU Horizon research grants
- National oceanographic agencies
- Defense departments (dual-use technology)
International Organizations (20-30%):
- United Nations (SDG 14: Life Below Water, SDG 16: Peace and Justice)
- World Bank (development impact)
- Regional organizations (EU, African Union, ASEAN)
Private Sector (10-20%):
- Data licensing (shipping, insurance, offshore energy)
- Philanthropic foundations (justice, environment)
- Technology companies (AI development partners)
Direct Financial Returns:
- Data sales: €50-100M annually (conservative)
- Fine revenues from illegal dumping: €50-200M annually
- Reduced search costs: €20-50M annually
Indirect Returns:
- Lives saved through deterrence: Priceless
- Scientific discoveries: Potential €billions
- Ocean health improvements: Long-term economic benefit
- International goodwill and cooperation: Strategic value
Break-even: 15-20 years on financial metrics alone
True value: Immeasurable when including justice and human impact
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sensor failure rate higher than expected | Medium | Medium | Redundancy, over-deploy by 20% |
| AI false positive rate too high | Medium | High | Multi-stage verification, human review |
| Undersea cables damaged | Low | Medium | Wireless backup systems |
| Technology obsolescence | Low | Medium | Modular design, upgrade path |
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insufficient international buy-in | Medium | High | Start with pilot, prove value |
| Funding cuts mid-project | Medium | High | Multi-source funding, long-term agreements |
| Jurisdictional disputes | Medium | Medium | Clear legal framework upfront |
| Misuse of surveillance capability | Low | High | Oversight board, transparency, limited scope |
Critical Requirements:
- ✅ At least 20 nations commit to pilot phase
- ✅ Secure €50M+ for Phase 1
- ✅ Interpol/Europol institutional support
- ✅ Legal framework established before deployment
- ✅ Public support and transparency
| Aspect | ISS | IOFMS |
|---|---|---|
| Budget | €150B over 30 years | €4B over 10 years |
| Partners | 15 countries | 50+ potential |
| Primary Purpose | Science | Forensics + Science + Security |
| Public Benefit | Indirect (research) | Direct (justice, lives saved) |
| Technical Difficulty | Extreme | Moderate |
Lesson: If humanity can cooperate in space, we can cooperate in our oceans.
| Aspect | LHC | IOFMS |
|---|---|---|
| Budget | €7.5B | €4B |
| Purpose | Pure science | Applied (forensics) + science |
| Geographic Scope | Single location | Global |
| Operational Benefit | Knowledge | Knowledge + justice + security |
Lesson: Society funds massive science projects; this one also saves lives.
| Aspect | GPS | IOFMS |
|---|---|---|
| Initial Purpose | Military | Forensic + Security |
| Development Cost | €12B (1970s-1990s) | €4B proposed |
| Civilian Benefits | Massive, unforeseen | Ocean health, science, security |
| Global Impact | Revolutionary | Potentially transformative |
Lesson: Dual-use infrastructure creates unexpected benefits beyond original mission.
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Stakeholder Engagement
- Present to Interpol General Assembly
- Approach Europol, national police forces
- Engage oceanographic institutions
- Contact potential funding bodies (EU, UN)
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Technical Validation
- Commission independent feasibility study
- Pilot test sensors in controlled environment
- Validate AI algorithms with historical data
- Conduct environmental impact pre-assessment
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Legal Framework Development
- Engage international law experts
- Draft data-sharing agreements
- Establish governance structure proposal
- Navigate UNCLOS requirements
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Pilot Region Selection
- Identify 5-10 willing partner nations
- Choose pilot area (likely Mediterranean or Baltic)
- Secure Phase 1 funding commitments
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Consortium Formation
- Formalize participating institutions
- Sign memoranda of understanding
- Establish working groups (technical, legal, operational)
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Detailed Design
- Specify exact sensor types and locations
- Design coordination center architecture
- Develop AI training datasets
- Create operational protocols
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Phase 1 Deployment
- Install first 100 sensors
- Establish 3 coordination centers
- Deploy 5 AUVs
- Begin monitoring operations
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Evaluation & Refinement
- Assess system performance
- Gather user feedback from police forces
- Optimize AI algorithms
- Publish findings for peer review
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Expansion Planning
- Prepare Phase 2 proposal based on results
- Recruit additional partner nations
- Secure Phase 2 funding
The International Ocean Forensic Monitoring System represents a unique opportunity to address multiple global challenges through a single coordinated effort:
- Justice: Solve crimes, bring closure to families, deter maritime violence
- Science: Advance ocean knowledge, monitor climate change, discover biodiversity
- Security: Detect illegal activities, protect maritime borders, ensure safety
- Cooperation: Build international trust, share technology, work toward common goals
This is not science fiction. Every component technology exists today. What's needed is vision, coordination, and commitment.
The ocean has kept its secrets long enough. It's time to listen.
For Policymakers: Champion this initiative in your government. The cost is modest; the benefits are profound.
For Law Enforcement: Provide input on operational requirements. This system is for you—help us build it right.
For Scientists: Contribute expertise and data. This will advance ocean science immeasurably.
For Funders: Invest in a project that combines justice, science, and security. ROI goes beyond money.
For the Public: Support this vision. Demand that our oceans be monitored, protected, and understood.
Project Proponent:
Sebastian Korotkiewicz
[email protected]
+49 159 0268 1236
For More Information:
[Website - to be created]
Expressions of Interest:
We welcome contact from potential partners, funders, and technical contributors.
[Detailed sensor specs, AUV capabilities, communication protocols]
[Sample data-sharing agreement, jurisdictional protocols]
[Examples of unsolved maritime cases that IOFMS could have addressed]
[Expanded discussion of oceanographic research opportunities]
[Detailed line-item costs for all phases]
[List of potential collaborators in law enforcement, science, and industry]
[Academic papers, existing projects, technical standards]
Document Version: 1.0 DRAFT
Last Updated: October 2025
Status: Seeking feedback and partner organizations
License: This white paper may be freely shared for non-commercial purposes with attribution.
"The sea, once it casts its spell, holds one in its net of wonder forever." — Jacques Cousteau
Let us now cast our own net—one of justice, knowledge, and protection—across the world's oceans.