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Rip of Lichtenstein et al 1978's table 5 (p. 564) doi:10.1037/0278-7393.4.6.551 (estimates of risks of death from various causes)
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| Cause | Rate_outof_205000000 | MVA_geom_mean | MVA_resid | Elec_geom_mean | Elec_resid | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smallpox | 0.00 | 88.00 | 37.00 | |||
| Poisoning by vitamins | 1.00 | 237.00 | 1.27 | 44.00 | 1.16 | |
| Botulism | 2.00 | 379.00 | 1.97 | 88.00 | 1.96 | |
| Measles | 5.00 | 331.00 | 1.39 | 85.00 | 1.47 | |
| Fireworks | 6.00 | 331.00 | 1.54 | 77.00 | 1.26 | |
| Smallpox vaccination | 8.00 | 38.00 | 0.17 | 14.00 | 0.22 | |
| Whooping cough | 15.00 | 171.00 | 0.69 | 51.00 | 0.62 | |
| Polio | 17.00 | 202.00 | 0.80 | 47.00 | 0.55 | |
| Venomous bite or sting | 48.00 | 535.00 | 1.67 | 233.00 | 1.85 | |
| Tornado | 90.00 | 688.00 | 1.82 | 463.00 | 2.86 | |
| Lightning | 107.00 | 128.00 | 0.32 | 64.00 | 0.37 | |
| Nonvenomous animal | 129.00 | 298.00 | 0.71 | 102.00 | 0.54 | |
| Flood | 205.00 | 863.00 | 1.77 | 627.00 | 2.71 | |
| Excess cold | 334.00 | 468.00 | 0.81 | 211.00 | 0.73 | |
| Syphilis | 410.00 | 717.00 | 1.15 | 338.00 | 1.05 | |
| Pregnancy, childbirth, and abortion | 451.00 | 1932.00 | 2.98 | 935.00 | 2.78 | |
| Infectious hepatitis | 677.00 | 907.00 | 1.19 | 328.00 | 0.80 | |
| Appendicitis | 902.00 | 880.00 | 1.03 | 416.00 | 0.87 | |
| Electrocution | 1025.00 | 586.00 | 0.65 | 1000.00 | 1.96 | |
| Motor-train collision | 1517.00 | 793.00 | 0.74 | 598.00 | 0.95 | |
| Asthma | 1886.00 | 769.00 | 0.65 | 333.00 | 0.47 | |
| Firearms | 2255.00 | 1623.00 | 1.26 | 1114.00 | 1.42 | |
| Poisoning | 2563.00 | 1318.00 | 0.96 | 778.00 | 92.00 | |
| Tuberculosis | 3690.00 | 966.00 | 0.59 | 448.00 | 0.43 | |
| Fire and flames | 7380.00 | 3814.00 | 1.62 | 2918.00 | 1.86 | |
| Drowning | 7380.00 | 1989.00 | 0.85 | 1425.00 | 0.91 | |
| Leukemia | 14555.00 | 2807.00 | 0.81 | 2220.00 | 0.92 | |
| Accidental falls | 17425.00 | 2585.00 | 0.68 | 2768.00 | 1.03 | |
| Homicide | 18860.00 | 8441.00 | 2.10 | 3691.00 | 1.30 | |
| Emphysema | 21730.00 | 3009.00 | 0.69 | 2696.00 | 0.86 | |
| Suicide | 24600.00 | 6675.00 | 1.42 | 3280.00 | 0.97 | |
| Breast cancer | 31160.00 | 3607.00 | 0.66 | 2436.00 | 0.61 | |
| Diabetes | 38950.00 | 2138.00 | 0.34 | 1019.00 | 0.22 | |
| Motor vehicle accident | 55350.00 | 50000.00 | 6.34 | 33884.00 | 5.76 | |
| Lung cancer | 75850.00 | 9723.00 | 1.00 | 9806.00 | 1.33 | |
| Stomach cancer | 95120.00 | 4878.00 | 0.43 | 2209.00 | 0.26 | |
| All accidents | 112750.00 | 86537.00 | 6.77 | 91285.00 | 9.32 | |
| Stroke | 209100.00 | 10668.00 | 0.54 | 4737.00 | 0.31 | |
| All cancer | 328000.00 | 47523.00 | 1.70 | 43772.00 | 2.00 | |
| Heart disease | 738000.00 | 25900.00 | 0.49 | 21503.00 | 0.51 | |
| All disease | 1740450.00 | 80779.00 | 0.75 | 97701.00 | 1.14 |
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| library(ggplot2) | |
| library(dplyr) | |
| tens = withr::with_options( | |
| list(scipen=999), | |
| prettyNum(10^(0:10),big.mark = ',') | |
| ) | |
| readr::read_csv('Lichtenstein_etal_Tab5.csv') %>% | |
| mutate( | |
| Cause = trimws(Cause), | |
| MVA_geom_mean = case_when( | |
| Cause == 'Motor vehicle accident' ~ NA_real_, | |
| TRUE ~ MVA_geom_mean | |
| ), | |
| Elec_geom_mean = case_when( | |
| Cause == 'Electrocution' ~ NA_real_, | |
| TRUE ~ Elec_geom_mean | |
| ), | |
| both_geom_mean = exp(.5*sum(log(MVA_geom_mean),log(Elec_geom_mean), na.rm=TRUE)) | |
| ) %>% | |
| filter(Cause != 'Smallpox') %>% | |
| ggplot(aes(x = Rate_outof_205000000, y = MVA_geom_mean, label = Cause)) + | |
| scale_x_log10( | |
| limits =c(1,10e6), | |
| breaks =10^(0:6), | |
| labels = tens[1:7], | |
| expand = c(0,0) | |
| ) + | |
| scale_y_log10( | |
| limits=c(1,10e5), | |
| breaks=10^(0:5), | |
| labels = tens[1:6], | |
| expand = c(0,0) | |
| ) + | |
| geom_abline(slope = 1, intercept = 2, col = "gray", linetype = 'dashed') + | |
| annotate(geom = 'text', x = 10e2, y = 10e4, label = '100x too high', color = 'gray', angle = 45, size = 6) + | |
| geom_abline(slope = 1, intercept = 1, col = "gray", linetype = 'dashed') + | |
| annotate(geom = 'text', x = 10e2, y = 10e3, label = '10x too high', color = 'gray', angle = 45, size = 6) + | |
| geom_abline(slope = 1, intercept = -2, col = "gray", linetype = 'dashed') + | |
| annotate(geom = 'text', x = 10e2, y = 10e0, label = '1/100 too low', color = 'gray', angle = 45, size = 6) + | |
| geom_abline(slope = 1, intercept = -1, col = "gray", linetype = 'dashed') + | |
| annotate(geom = 'text', x = 10e1, y = 10e0, label = '1/10 too low', color = 'gray', angle = 45, size = 6) + | |
| geom_abline(slope = 1, intercept = 0, size = 1.5, alpha = .5) + | |
| geom_point(size = 2, color = 'darkred') + | |
| ylab('Estimated deaths per year (USA, c1970)') + | |
| xlab('Actual deaths per year (USA, 1968-1973)') + | |
| theme_minimal() + | |
| theme( | |
| axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, vjust = 1) | |
| ) + | |
| coord_fixed() + | |
| ggrepel::geom_label_repel() + | |
| labs(caption = "Source: Lichtenstein et al (1978). Among Univ. of Oregon students. 1970 USA Pop.: 205,000,000") |
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