Cardano analytics

reserves-treasury-plot.py

# /// script
# requires-python = ">=3.10"
# dependencies = [
#     "matplotlib",
#     "numpy",
# ]
# ///

# Start the script with "uv run reserves-treasury-plot.py"

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from datetime import datetime, timedelta

# Initial values and parameters
initial_reserves = 7.66e9  # 7.66B ADA
initial_treasury = 1.58e9  # 1.58B ADA
epoch_days = 5
reward_rate = 0.003  # 0.3% per epoch
treasury_share = 0.20  # 20% of rewards go to treasury
years = 5

# Calculate number of epochs in 5 years
epochs = int((365 * years) / epoch_days)

# Initialize arrays to store values
reserves = np.zeros(epochs + 1)
treasury = np.zeros(epochs + 1)
dates = []

# Set initial values
reserves[0] = initial_reserves
treasury[0] = initial_treasury
current_date = datetime.now()
dates.append(current_date)

# Calculate values for each epoch
for i in range(1, epochs + 1):
    # Calculate rewards for this epoch
    epoch_rewards = reserves[i-1] * reward_rate
    
    # Update reserves (subtract all rewards)
    reserves[i] = reserves[i-1] - epoch_rewards
    
    # Update treasury (add 20% of rewards)
    treasury[i] = treasury[i-1] + (epoch_rewards * treasury_share)
    
    # Add date
    dates.append(current_date + timedelta(days=i*epoch_days))

# Create the visualization
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))

# Plot reserves
plt.plot(dates, reserves/1e9, label='Reserves', color='blue', linewidth=2)

# Plot treasury
plt.plot(dates, treasury/1e9, label='Treasury', color='green', linewidth=2)

# Customize the plot
plt.title('Cardano Reserves and Treasury Projection (5 Years)', pad=20)
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Amount (Billion ADA)')
plt.grid(True, linestyle='--', alpha=0.7)
plt.legend()

# Rotate x-axis labels for better readability
plt.xticks(rotation=45)

# Format y-axis to show billions
plt.gca().yaxis.set_major_formatter(plt.FuncFormatter(lambda x, p: f'{x:.2f}B'))

# Adjust layout to prevent label cutoff
plt.tight_layout()

# Show the final values
final_reserves = reserves[-1]/1e9
final_treasury = treasury[-1]/1e9
print(f"After {years} years:")
print(f"Final reserves: {final_reserves:.2f}B ADA")
print(f"Final treasury: {final_treasury:.2f}B ADA")

plt.show()