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lsbyerley/prediction.js

Created January 28, 2018 17:08
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prediction.js
// D1 average tempo and D1 average efficiency vary daily but this is what I have for 1/28/18
const D1AverageTempo = 68.3185185185185 // the average tempo of all Division1 teams
const D1AverageEfficiency = 104.07578347578351 // the average combined offensive and defensive efficiency of all Division1 teams
const offensiveWeight = 1.014; // Offensive weight for the home team
const defensiveWeight = 0.986; // Defensive weight for the home team
const awayOffensiveEfficiency = awayOffensiveEfficiency * defWeight;
const awayDefensiveEfficiency = awayDefensiveEfficiency * offWeight;
const homeOffensiveEfficiency = homeOffensiveEfficiency * offWeight;
const homeDefensiveEfficiency = awayOffensiveEfficiency * defWeight;
const expectedTempo = D1AverageTempo * (awayTempo/D1AverageTempo) * (homeTempo/D1AverageTempo)
// AWAY AND HOME EXPECTED OUTPUT
const awayExpectedOutput = (awayOffensiveEfficiency/D1AverageEfficiency) * (homeDefensiveEfficiency/D1AverageEfficiency) * D1AverageEfficiency * (expectedTempo/100)
const homeExpectedOutput = (homeOffensiveEfficiency/D1AverageEfficiency) * (awayDefensiveEfficiency/D1AverageEfficiency) * D1AverageEfficiency * (expectedTempo/100)
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