core.clj

(def naive-model
  "assuming that the 2 percent mortality rate applies to anyone who gets COVID19"
  (let [world-population     8e9
       covid-mortality-rate 0.02
        percent-infected     [0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1]]
   (->> percent-infected
        (map #(* % world-population))
        (map #(* % covid-mortality-rate)))))

(def severe-only-model
  "assuming only those who get severely sick die. severe-only is naive-model with an extra condition"
  (let [severe-cases 0.2]
    (->> naive-model
         (map #(* % severe-cases)))))

(comment
  "According to Naive model, anywhere from 16M to 160M"
  naive-model
  => [1.6E7 3.2E7 4.8E7 6.4E7 8.0E7 9.6E7 1.12E8 1.28E8 1.44E8 1.6E8]
  
  "Assuming only 20% of cases could become fatal: 3.2M to 32Million"
  severe-only-model
  => [3200000.0 6400000.0 9600000.0 1.28E7 1.6E7 1.92E7 2.24E7 2.56E7 2.88E7 3.2E7]


  "50% infected, only severe cases die: 16 Million"
  (get (apply vector severe-only-model)  (dec 5))
  => 1.6E7

  "50% infected, mortality rate applies to all infected: 80 Million"
  (get (apply vector naive-model)        (dec 5))
  => 8.0E7

)