The Gentle Singularity 温柔的奇点
We are past the event horizon[^1]; the takeoff has started. Humanity is close to building digital superintelligence, and at least so far it’s much less weird than it seems like it should be. 我们已经越过了事件视界；起飞已经开始。人类即将建造出数字超级智能，至少到目前为止，它远比我们想象的要平淡无奇。
Robots are not yet walking the streets, nor are most of us talking to AI all day. People still die of disease, we still can’t easily go to space, and there is a lot about the universe we don’t understand. 机器人尚未走上街头，大多数人也没有整天与 AI 对话。人们仍会因病去世，我们仍无法轻松进入太空，宇宙中还有许多我们无法理解的事物。
And yet, we have recently built systems that are smarter than people in many ways, and are able to significantly amplify the output of people using them. The least-likely part of the work is behind us; the scientific insights that got us to systems like GPT-4 and o3 were hard-won, but will take us very far.