Okay, let's trace the history of tech hype cycles, keeping in mind that while the term "Hype Cycle" was popularized by Gartner in 1995, the underlying pattern of excitement, disillusionment, and eventual productivity has existed for much longer.
Understanding the Gartner Hype Cycle Model (Briefly)
Before diving into history, it's helpful to remember the typical stages Gartner defined:
- Technology Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest emerge.
- Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Much enthusiasm and unrealistic projections. Investment pours in.
- Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.
- Slope of Enlightenment: More