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Created August 23, 2025 22:56
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On capturing probability mass in a shrinking interval

""" Script to the video at https://youtu.be/8w4jHN1LsnY """

===== Moving quantile series ===== === Preliminary - Exponential distribution example === Density: $p_\mu(x) := F'(x) = \frac{1}{\mu} {\mathrm e}^{-\frac{x}{\mu}}$

CDF: $F_\mu(x) := 1 - {\mathrm e}^{-\frac{x}{\mu}}$

Plot[Table[Exp[-x/m]/m, {m, .1, 2, .2}], {x, 0, 3}] The parameter actually equals the mean: ${\mathbb E}[X] = \mu$ Plot[{Exp[-x/0.1]/0.1, UnitStep[x - 0.1], Exp[-x/0.4]/0.4, UnitStep[x - 0.4]}, {x, 0, 0.6}]

My motivation (from Partial Differential Equations, 3rd Ed, by Jost),

$T_1(s) := {\mathrm e}^{s G}$

(which has $\lim_{s\to 0} T_1(s) = 1$.)

$I_1(\mu) = \int_0^\infty \left( T_1(s) - 1 \right)\cdot {\mathrm d}F_\mu(s) = \int_0^\infty \left( {\mathrm e}^{s G} - 1 \right) \dfrac{{\mathrm e}^{-s/\mu} ,{\mathrm d}s}{\mu}$

$= \dfrac{1}{1 - \mu G} - 1 = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} (\mu G)^n = \mu G + {\mathcal O}(\mu^2)$

So, clearly,

$\lim_{\mu\to 0} I_1(s) = 0$.

Now for more a bit more general $T_2(s)$ (see PDF book for more contest),

$I_2(v, \mu) = \int_0^\infty \left( T_2(s)v - v \right)\cdot {\mathrm d}F_\mu(s)$

also has $\lim_{\mu\to 0} I_2(v, \mu) = 0$.

Approach (see book) is to do $\int_0^\infty = \int_0^\delta + \int_\delta^\infty$ and argue both parts are zero individually.

(Note that somehting like $\lim_{s\to 0} T_2(s)v = v$ helps.)


CDF: $F\colon {\mathbb R}_{\ge 0}\to [0,1]$ $F(0) = 0, F(\infty) = 1$ $p(x) := F'(x)$

For a quantile level $q$, call the $q$-th quantile $x_{F,,q}$ the $x$-value with $F(x_{F,,q}) = q$. $\int_0^{x_{F,,q}} p(x) , {\mathrm d}x = F(F^{-1}(q)) - F(0) = q$


Obtain a $d$-indexed family via $x$-axis rescaling, $F_d(x) := F(\frac{x}{d})$ with $d > 0$ (Note that $F_d$ is just as valid a CDF as $F$.) so that $p_d(x) = F_d'(x) = \frac{1}{d} p(\frac{x}{d})$ (Note: Also ${\mathbb E}{p_d}[X] = d\cdot {\mathbb E}p[X]$.) and with $x{F_d,,q} := F_d^{-1}(q) = d\cdot F^{-1}(q)$ We still have a $d$-independent integral, $\int_0^{x{F_d,,q}} p_d(x) , {\mathrm d}x = F(\frac{d\cdot F^{-1}(q)}{d}) = q$ Note that this is now despite the shrinked interval size. As it's constant, it also holds while $\lim_{d\to 0} x_{F_d,,q} = 0$ In the shrinked setup with $d<1$, the mass is moved closer to $0$ and so the point where the CDF is $q$ comes earlier.

Example: $F(x) := 1 - {\mathrm e}^{-x}$ with ${\mathbb E}[X] = 1$ Intorduce $d=\mu$, so as to get to $F_\mu(x) := 1 - {\mathrm e}^{-\frac{x}{\mu}}$ With $p_\mu(x) = \frac{1}{\mu} {\mathrm e}^{-\frac{x}{\mu}}$ We have that $x_{F_\mu,,q} = −\mu\log(1−q) > 0$ and it ofc gives $\int_0^{−\mu\log(1−q)} \left(\frac{1}{\mu} {\mathrm e}^{-\frac{x}{\mu}}\right) , {\mathrm d}x = q$


Now, instead, set a value $x_{F_d,,q_d}$ and let $q_d := F(x_{F_d,,q_d})$ be its quantile value. In particular, we study $x_{F_d,,q_d} = d^r$. Then if $r>0$ still $\lim_{d\to 0} x_{F_d,,q_d} = 0$, while $\lim_{d\to 0} \int_0^{x_{F_d,,q_d}} p_d(x) , {\mathrm d}x = \lim_{d\to 0} F(d^{r-1})$ will now converge towards either of the extremes of ${\mathbb R}{\ge 0}$, depending on $r$. I.e. we can either squeeze in all the mass inside of $[0, x{F_d,,q_d}]$ or be too fast and lose all the mass.

And for the more manual $x_{F_d,,q_d}=\mu^r$, $I=\int_0^{\mu^r} \left(\frac{1}{\mu} {\mathrm e}^{-\frac{x}{\mu}}\right) , {\mathrm d}x = 1 - {\mathrm e}^{-\mu^{r-1}}$

$\mu^{r-1}\to 0\implies I=0$ For $r<1$ this actually takes the bulk of the density inside the shrinking early interval. For $r=1$ it's constant and for for $r>1$ the mass in the interval goes to zero.

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