hackingthemarkets · December 28, 2022 22:56
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	text
	Good afternoon
	Before I go into the details of today’s meeting, I would like to underscore for the American people that we understand the hardship that high inflation is causing and that we are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal
	Over the course of the year, we have taken forceful actions to tighten the stance of monetary policy
	We have covered a lot of ground, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt
	Even so, we have more work to do
	Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy
	Without price stability, the economy doesn’t work for anyone
	In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all
	Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 1/2 percentage point
	We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time
	In addition, we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet
	Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time
	I will have more to say about today's monetary policy actions after briefly reviewing economic developments
	The U.S economy has slowed significantly from last year's rapid pace
	Although real GDP rose at a pace of 2.9 percent last quarter, it is roughly unchanged through the first three quarters of this year
	Recent indicators point to modest growth of spending and production this quarter
	Growth in consumer spending has slowed from last year’s rapid pace, in part reflecting lower real disposable income and tighter financial conditions
	Activity in the housing sector has weakened significantly, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates
	Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment
	As shown in our Summary of Economic Projections, the median projection for real GDP growth stands at just 0.5 percent this year and next, well below the median estimate of the longer-run normal growth rate
	Despite the slowdown in growth, the labor market remains extremely tight, with the unemployment rate near a 50-year low, job vacancies still very high, and wage growth elevated
	Job gains have been robust, with employment rising by an average of 272,000 jobs per month over the last three months
	Although job vacancies have moved below their highs and the pace of job gains has slowed from earlier in the year, the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers
	The labor force participation rate is little changed since the beginning of the year
	FOMC participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance over time, easing upward pressures on wages and prices
	The median projection in the SEP for the unemployment rate rises to 4.6 percent at the end of next year
	Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent
	Over the 12 months ending in October, total PCE prices rose 6 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 5 percent
	In November, the 12-month change in the CPI was 7.1 percent,and the change in the core CPI was 6 percent
	The inflation data received so far for October and November show a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases
	But it will take substantially more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path
	Price pressures remain evident across a broad range of goods and services
	Russia’s war against Ukraine has boosted prices for energy and food and has contributed to upward pressure on inflation
	The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 5.6 percent this year and falls to 3.1 percent next year, 2.5 percent in 2024, and 2.1 percent in 2025; participants continue to see risks to inflation as weighted to the upside.
	Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets
	But that is not grounds for complacency; the longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched
	The Fed's monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people
	My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation
	We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent objective
	At today’s meeting the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, bringing the target range to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent
	And we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet
	With today's action, we have raised interest rates by 4-1/4 percentage points this year
	We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time
	Over the course of the year, financial conditions have tightened significantly in response to our policy actions
	Financial conditions fluctuate in the short term in response to many factors, but it is important that over time they reflect the policy restraint we are putting in place to return inflation to 2 percent
	We are seeing the effects ondemand in the most interest-sensitive sectors of the economy, such as housing
	It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation
	In light of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affectseconomic activity and inflation, the Committee decided to raise interest rates by 50 basis points today, a step down from the 75-basis point pace seen over the previous four meetings
	Of course, 50 basis points is still a historically large increase, and we still have some ways to go
	As shown in the SEP, the median projection for the appropriate level of the federal fundsrate is 5.1 percent at the end of next year, 1/2 percentage point higher than projected in September
	The median projection is 4.1 percent at the end of 2024 and 3.1 percent at the end of2025, still above the median estimate of its longer-run value
	Of course, these projections do not represent a Committee decision or plan, and no one knows with any certainty where the economy will be a year or more from now
	Our decisions will depend on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation
	And we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting and communicate our thinking as clearly as possible.
	We are taking forceful steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply
	Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored
	Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions
	Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run
	The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy
	We will stay the course, until the job is done.
	To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country
	Everything we do is in service to our public mission
	We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals
	Thank you
	I look forward to your questions.
	text
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